Ingxelo emfutshane yeMarike yemihla ngemihla 2026.2.4

Ngokweenkcukacha zamva nje zemarike, ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso ethusi ngoku kuphenjelelwa kakhulu zezi zinto zilandelayo ziphambili:

1. Utshintsho kulindelo lwemigaqo-nkqubo yemali yaseMelika

Ukutyunjwa kukaTrump kukaWalsh njengosihlalo weFed: Kuvuselela ulindelo olungaqhelekanga kwimarike, idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US PPI inyuka ngokungalindelekanga, idola ibuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo ngokukhawuleza kwaye inefuthe elibi kumaxabiso ekopolo.

2 Intshukumo yeisalathisi sedola

Idola ebuthathaka inike inkxaso ekhawulezayo kumaxabiso ethusi, kodwa isalathisi sedola sibonakalise iimpawu zokubuyela umva kutshanje. Isongelo sikaTrump sokunyusa izinga lerhafu yaseMzantsi Korea ukusuka kwi-15% ukuya kwi-25%, kunye nethuba le-80% lokuvalwa kukarhulumente wase-US, zinyuse ukungaqiniseki komgaqo-nkqubo wase-US kwaye zenza idola yabuthathaka.

3 Iingozi zezopolitiko

Ukungaqiniseki okubangelwe zizenzo zezopolitiko zase-US e-Iran naseVenezuela, kunye noqhankqalazo lwaseChile oluye lwavala ukufikelela kwimigodi emibini yobhedu, kunempembelelo ethe ngqo kwimveliso yobhedu. Ezi zinto zezopolitiko ziye zandisa ixabiso lemarike leengozi zobonelelo lobhedu.

4. Iimpembelelo zomgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo

Iinkxalabo zerhafu yaseMelika ziyaqhubeka nokuba nefuthe elibi kumaxabiso ekopolo. Impembelelo yomgaqo-nkqubo waseMelika wokunyanzelisa irhafu ye-10% kwiimpahla zaseTshayina ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngo-2025 isaqhubeka, kwaye iinkxalabo zemarike malunga nomngcipheko wemfazwe yorhwebo ziye zanda ngamanye amaxesha.

5. Iimeko-bume yoqoqosho lwehlabathi

Imeko yezemali yehlabathi ihambela kwicala elinobuhlobo ngakumbi. Ngenxa yesi sizathu, iimarike ezinkulu zezabelo zehlabathi ngokubanzi zinyukile, kwaye iimarike zeempahla nazo zibone ukunyuka ngokubanzi. Kodwa njengoko i-PMI yokuvelisa ibuyela umva ukuya kutsho kumgca we-50% wokukhula, i-ECB ayilindelanga ukuba ingayi kukhuphi inzala ngo-2026.

6. Unxibelelwano lwemarike yeesinyithi ezixabisekileyo

Iimpawu zemali zobhedu ziye zanda kwakhona kutshanje, kwaye izinyithi ezixabisekileyo zibangela ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kumaxabiso obhedu. Ngenxa yokwehla ngokukhawuleza kwamaxabiso egolide nesilivere, amaxabiso obhedu ayehla ngesantya esiphezulu.

I-Copper okwangoku ikwinqanaba apho izinto ezinkulu kunye neziseko ziphezulu kwaye ziphantsi, kwaye iimvakalelo zemarike aziguquguquki. Kucetyiswa ukuba uhlale ujonge kwicala lemigaqo-nkqubo ye-Federal Reserve, intshukumo ye-US dollar index, kunye notshintsho kwiingozi ze-geopolitical.

Ngokusekelwe kulwazi lwamva nje lwemarike, ndenza olu hlalutyo kunye noqikelelo lwexabiso lekopolo kwiinyanga ezintathu ezizayo:

Imeko yangoku yemarike yamaxabiso obhedu

Ngokwedatha ye-SMM, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-1# copper electrolytic nge-3 kaFebruwari 2026 yayiyi-101,320 yuan ngetoni, ukurhoxa ukusuka kwi-104,410 yuan ngetoni nganye ngoJanuwari. Ngokwembali, amaxabiso e-copper abonise ukunyuka okucacileyo phakathi kukaNovemba 2025 noJanuwari 2026, enyuka ukusuka kwi-86,840 yuan ngetoni nganye ukuya kwi-104,410 yuan ngetoni nganye.

Ingqikelelo yeenyanga ezintathu ezizayo:

NyeIkota yokuQala (uFebruwari ukuya kuMatshi): Ixesha lohlengahlengiso oluguquguqukayo

Uluhlu lwamaxabiso olulindelekileyo: 98,000-103,000 yuan/ton

Ixabiso lekopolo langoku likwinqanaba eliphezulu lokulungiswa, ikakhulu lichaphazeleka zezi zinto zilandelayo:

1) Ukungaqiniseki komgaqo-nkqubo weMacro: Ukutyunjwa kukaTrump kukaWalsh njengosihlalo weFed kunyuse amathemba e-hawk, kwaye ukubuya kwakhona kwi-dollar index kubeke uxinzelelo kumaxabiso ethusi

A. Uxinzelelo kwicala lemfuno: Izinga lokusebenza kwentambo yobhedu lehle laya kuma-68.89% ngoDisemba, amaxabiso aphezulu obhedu anciphisa ukukhutshwa kwemfuno esezantsi

B. Ukwahluka kwindlela ezimi ngayo izinto ezikhoyo: Izinto ezikhoyo zase-US ziyaqhubeka nokunyuka, ngelixa izinto ezikhoyo kwiindawo ezingezizo zase-US zincinci kakhulu.

MbiniEkuqaleni kwekota yesibini (u-Epreli): Ixesha lokuzinza kunye nexesha lokubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo

Uluhlu lwamaxabiso olulindelekileyo: 102,000-108,000 yuan/ton

Njengoko ezi zinto zilandelayo ziphuma kancinci kancinci:

1) Inkxaso kwicala lokubonelela ngeenkonzo: IKhomishini yeSizwe yoCopper yaseChile inyuse uqikelelo lwamaxabiso obhedu ngo-2026 ukuya kwi-$4.95 ngepawundi (malunga ne-$10,900 ngetoni)

2) Iingozi zezopolitiko: Uqhankqalazo eChile luvale ukufikelela kwimigodi emibini yobhedu, nto leyo enegalelo elithe ngqo kwimveliso yobhedu

3) Imfuno yokuguquka kwamandla: Indima ephambili yeCopper kumaziko edatha e-AI kunye notshintsho lwamandla acocekileyo luyaqhubeka nokubonakala

Uhlalutyo lwezinto eziphambili ezinefuthe:

NyeIzinto ezibangela ukuxhalaba

1. Ukuqina kobonelelo lwesakhiwo: IGoldman Sachs inyuse uqikelelo lwexabiso layo lekopolo kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2026 ukuya kwi-$12,750 ngetoni, ikhankanya ukunqongophala kweprimiyamu ngenxa yokungabikho kwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo ngaphandle kwe-United States.

2. Ulindelo lwedola ebuthathaka: Nangona idola ibuyela umva kwixesha elifutshane, indlela ende yedola ebuthathaka ngayo isaxhasa amaxabiso ethusi

3. Ukwehla kabini kwimpahla ezisetyenzisiweyo: Iirisithi zokucima ubhedu ze-LME zibuyele kwi-37%, ukuncipha okungakumbi kunokwenzeka ukuba zonke iimpahla ezisetyenzisiweyo zirhoxiswa.

MbiniIzinto ezibangela ukwehla kwamandla

1. Amaxabiso aphezulu ayayithintela imfuno: Ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso ekopolo kuye kwehla kakhulu imfuno, kwaye iinkampani ziya zilumka ngakumbi ekuthengeni kwazo

2. Ukuqiniswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo emikhulu: Ulindelo lwe-hawkish oluxhasweyo kunye nokungaqiniseki kwemigaqo-nkqubo yorhwebo

3. Iingxowa-mali eziqikelelweyo zifumana inzuzo: Abanye abatyali-mali bakhetha ukutsala emva kokuba amaxabiso ethusi ephezulu

Isilumkiso soMngcipheko:

Amaxabiso ekopolo aza kujongana nemingcipheko elandelayo kwiinyanga ezintathu ezizayo:

- Ixesha elichanekileyo kunye nobunzulu bomgaqo-nkqubo werhafu wase-US

- Isantya sokutshintsha komgaqo-nkqubo wemali kuqoqosho olukhulu lwehlabathi

- Impembelelo yokwenyani yeengxabano zezopolitiko kwiindawo zokubonelela ngeenkonzo

Isigwebo sipheleleyo: Amaxabiso ekopolo aza kubonisa umkhwa wokuhla kuqala aze emva koko anyuke kwiinyanga ezintathu ezizayo, apho ithuba lokunciphisa ukuthengiswa kwemveliso lincinci, kwaye kusenokubakho isiseko esiphakamileyo esixhaswa ziziseko zokubonelela ngemveliso kunye nemfuno kwixesha eliphakathi nelide. Abatyali-mali bayacetyiswa ukuba bahlale bejonge utshintsho kwiimpahla, iindlela zomgaqo-nkqubo omkhulu kunye nokubuyiselwa kwemfuno esezantsi.